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	<title>Arcturus Investments</title>
	<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk</link>
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	<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Total Expense Ratio (TER) specifics</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/11/14/total-expense-ratio-ter-specifics/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/11/14/total-expense-ratio-ter-specifics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/11/14/total-expense-ratio-ter-specifics/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A Total Expense Ratio (TER) represents the drag on company performance caused by all 
annual operating costs (including administration, custody, audit and legal fees), not just the 
basic management fee. 
 
 In other words, the TER is the annual percentage reduction in 
investor returns that would result from operating costs if markets were to remain flat and the 
fund’s portfolio were [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">A Total Expense Ratio (TER) represents the drag on company performance caused by all </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">annual operating costs (including administration, custody, audit and legal fees), not just the </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">basic management fee. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"> In other words, the <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">TER</span> is the <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">annual percentage reduction</span> in </p>
<p></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">investor returns</span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"> that would result from operating costs if markets were to remain flat and the </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">fund’s portfolio were to be held and not traded during a period. More detail on the calculation </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">of the TER is outlined later in this document </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">The TERs shown on </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><a href="http://www.theaic.co.uk/"><font color="#0000ff">www.theaic.co.uk</font></a> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">have been calculated by Lipper, in association with the </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">AIC, and based on the information published in the audited (annual) financial statements and </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">regular reported data such as the NAVs. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The TER for each company is updated on an annual </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">basis following the announcement of the final results. Varying year-end reporting dates </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">necessitate that to ensure the cost comparisons are both relevant and timely the TER data on </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><a href="http://www.theaic.co.uk/"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#0000ff" size="3">www.theaic.co.uk</font></a><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">is updated on a quarterly basis (January, April July and October). </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The European Commission published its recommendations on some contents of the </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">simplified prospectus (UCITS III - document 2004/384/EC) in April 2004, which included </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">guidelines for TERs. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">These TER guidelines are based on similar principles to the approach </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Lipper have already established. <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">One particular change in methodology is the inclusion of </p>
<p></span></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">performance fees in the TER</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">, where the simplified prospectus requires performance fees to </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">be both included in the calculation of the TER and also shown separately, whereas historically </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Lipper has published the performance fee charged as a separate field of information. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Although the requirements of the simplified prospectus do not apply to investment </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">companies, the <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">AIC recognise the desire for comparability across other types of collective </p>
<p></span></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">investment vehicles (e.g. open-ended funds).</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"> </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">The TERs published on </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><a href="http://www.theaic.co.uk/"><font color="#0000ff">www.theaic.co.uk</font></a> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">are </p>
<p></span></font></font><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">thus based on similar principles. On </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><a href="http://www.theaic.co.uk/"><font color="#0000ff">www.theaic.co.uk</font></a> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">where a company has a performance </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">fee charge, two TERs are published, including and excluding the performance fee. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Additional </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">details are also provided regarding any reconstruction costs incurred and whether there is a </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">performance fee arrangement in place. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">In Lipper’s opinion the <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">NAV TER is the most directly comparable ratio to “Lipper TERs</span>” that </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">are published in other publications for other types of collective investment vehicles. As well </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">as calculating a range of NAV TERs, Lipper <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">calculates additional TERs based on the Gross </p>
<p></span></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">Asset Value and on the Market Value.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"> For any queries, please e-mail </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: blue; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><a href="mailto:lipperfitzrovia@reuters.com"><font face="Times New Roman" color="#0000ff" size="3">lipperfitzrovia@reuters.com</font></a><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">or visit </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><a href="http://www.lipperweb.com/"><font color="#0000ff">www.lipperweb.com</font></a> </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman">LIPPER TER CALCULATION </p>
<p></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The formula for the calculation of Lipper TERs shown is as follows: </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Total Annualised Net Operating Expenses </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Total Expense Ratio (NAV) % = </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Average NAV of company during period </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Underpinning this calculation are two key elements: </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">a) Total Annualised Net Operating Expenses </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Underlying expenses are sourced from each company’s annual audited accounts. These are </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">categorised into <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">operating expenses and non-operating expenses</span>. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">However, in broad terms the operating expenses are the costs that a company would have to </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">pay even in the absence of any purchases and sales of shares, and if investment markets </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">remained static for the whole period. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">They therefore include <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">management fees,</span> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">audit</span> fees, </p>
<p></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">directors</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">’ remuneration, <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">custody</span> charges and any <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">admin</span>istration and <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">marketing</span> costs, but </p>
<p></span></font></font><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><u><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">exclude</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"> capital gains and losses, and <u>costs associated with share transactions</u>. </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">If a financial reporting period is less than a full year the operating expenses are annualised </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">(multiplied by 365 and divided by the number of days in the period). </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">b) Average Net Asset Value (NAV) during the period </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Wherever possible we calculate average net assets during the period using the month end net </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">asset values, thereby providing an accurate estimate of the reduction in annual returns </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">accounted for by a company’s operating charges. Some companies such as many venture </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">capital trusts only calculate their net assets biannually. In this case, the average NAV is </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">necessarily based on the average of the opening, half-year and closing values. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">It should be appreciated that the <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">Net Asset Value is the underlying book value of the </p>
<p></span></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">company’s assets</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">. This does not correspond to the price at which investors may buy and sell </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">shares in the company as this is calculated from the Market Value of the shares. The </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">difference between these two valuation methods is known as the Discount or Premium. A </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Discount signifies that the Net Asset Value is higher than the Market Value and a Premium </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">the reverse. Although investors cannot buy or sell their shares by reference to the NAV it is </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">nevertheless an important valuation method because it indicates the investors’ net exposure </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">to the market in which the company is invested. </p>
<p></font></font></span><em><span style="color: black"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">“Investment Company Charges” in association with the AIC </p>
<p></font></font></span></em><em><span style="color: black"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">© Lipper – updated October 2007 </p>
<p></font></font></span></em><em><span style="color: black"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span></em><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman">DETAILED POLICIES REGARDING TER CALCULATIONS </p>
<p></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">As with any preparation of statistics it is necessary to set out policies and assumptions, some </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">of which require subjective judgment. These situations are outlined below for information: </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">1) Annual Financial Statements </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Audited annual reports have been used for all calculations. Semi-annual reports, if available, </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">contain an insufficient analysis of expenses to produce an accurate Lipper TER. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">2) <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">Non-Operating Costs</span> </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">In several cases a companies breakdown of expenses will include items that Lipper do not </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">consider to be operating expenses: these will have been excluded from the Total Operating </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Expenses figure and there will be a reconciliation difference between this and the total </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">expenses shown in the financial statements. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Company expense statements often include items that are excluded from the Lipper charging </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">calculation for obvious reasons, such as dividend payments and capital items (unrealised </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">losses on investments etc.) Other exclusions from calculations are as follows: </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">a) Lipper excludes performance fees from the standard TER calculation and continue to </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">believe that two separate figures are most relevant and useful for clients and investors. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The following points outline in detail why a consolidated [TER + Performance Fee] figure </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">on its own may well cause confusion: </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Annual operating expenses act as a drag each year on fund performance, and so if the TER </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">is to be used as a guide to the ongoing drag, it is important for a single figure to exclude </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">performance fees (with the latter then shown separately). In a combined figure one </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">cannot see how much is a result of fund performance and how much is a result of largely </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">fixed operating expenses. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Performance fees are, by their very name, performance-related and so might not be </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">payable in any given period. Nevertheless, clearly understandable information on </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">performance fees – both their structure and what has been charged – is essential for the </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">investment community. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Two funds, with otherwise identical expenses, are likely to have different TERs if </p>
<p></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">performance fees were included</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">. </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Furthermore, the better performer could have a higher </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">TER. This could also create a situation where the TER of a fund could look volatile over </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">time, when, in fact, this merely reflects the fund’s performance, rather than its operating </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">costs. Indeed the inclusion of performance fees in a TER could partly reflect wider market </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">conditions over the accounting period. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">A TER can sometimes be lower than a fund’s total operating expenses, or even negative, if </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">performance fees are included. This is explained as follows: performance fees must </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">necessarily be accrued at each fund valuation point. The actual crystallisation (i.e. when it </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">is fixed and recorded as a payment) of that performance fee might not happen for some </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">time. Any subsequent downturn in a fund’s share price will result in reduced performance </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">fee accruals at future valuation points. This could lead to a situation where, within a </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">particular accounting period, there is actually a reduction in the accrued performance </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">fees. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The impact of performance fees in terms of a fund’s net assets, if the performance goals </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">were achieved over an accounting period, can be expressed separately (and are expressed </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">separately in Lipper research). However, the most useful and relevant performance fee </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">figure for investors and others is not the performance fee that was achieved in any given </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">period (in net assets), but the performance fee structure itself (together with the fund’s </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">performance). </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">b) bank and loan interest, because this is deemed to be an investment related capital </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">expense rather than an operating expense. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">c) <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow">brokerage, which is treated as a capital item and not an operating expense by the </p>
<p></span></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">majority of companies</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">; </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">d) currency profit/loss on the companies revenue bank account, the inclusion of which </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">would either increase or decrease the genuine operating expenses figure. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">e) restructuring costs, such as expenses associated with the buy-back of shares/warrants, </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">restructuring of debt, mergers and other types of restructuring which are considered to </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">be capital items, are generally one-off and which would distort the Lipper TER, thus </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">making comparisons between companies meaningless. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">3) Ordinary Shares and Other Share Classes </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Certain investment companies issue more than one share class to meet the needs of different </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">types of investor; for example, those requiring either income or capital growth or to suit </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">different risk profiles. These share classes generally have differing cost structures. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Described below is the treatment of the main types of share class currently in issue: </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">a) Preference shares and zero dividend preference shares </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">No expenses are attributable to preference shares and they therefore always have a zero </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Lipper TER. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Although preference shares often carry voting rights and are treated in the accounts as </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">being shareholders funds, to all intents and purposes they are a form of long term </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">financing. They are consequently treated as such in the Lipper TER calculation and are </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">deducted at book value from total assets to arrive at the net assets figure attributable to </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">ordinary shareholders. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">b) Split capital investment companies with income shares </p>
<p></font></font></span><em><span style="color: black"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">“Investment Company Charges” in association with the AIC </p>
<p></font></font></span></em><em><span style="color: black"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">© Lipper – updated October 2007 </p>
<p></font></font></span></em><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Lipper has taken the decision not to calculate TERs for split capital investment companies </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">as this could be misleading for investors. For example, the split between income and </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">capital means that a TER could potentially be 0% or extraordinarily high. In addition, split </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">capital investment companies TERs would not be comparable with any other company, or </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">indeed any other type of collective investment vehicle. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">More specifically, the NAV in the balance sheet is not always representative of the fair NAV </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">of the shares (for example Income shares may receive all of the income and yet carry a </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">value in the accounts of their redemption price, which may be nominal). Unfortunately, the </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">process of deciding whether or not the balance sheet value is fair is a subjective one. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Whenever possible it is Lipper’s policy to avoid subjectivity. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">6) Convertible loan stock </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The issue of convertible loan stock (CULS) can have a material effect on the NAV of the </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">ordinary shares. Where the share price has risen and the CULS may be exercised at a higher </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">value than book value there is a clear liability that is not recorded in the balance sheet. To </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">reflect this potentially material item the diluted NAV per share is used reflecting the NAV per </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">share after the theoretical conversion of all of the CULS. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">7) Fees Charged to Capital Account </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">As discussed previously, we do not include in our Lipper TER calculations capital items such </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">as brokerage. The apportionment of operating expenses to capital is widespread throughout </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">the investment company industry. To fairly calculate the Lipper TER in these cases we have </p>
<p></font></font></span><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="background: yellow; color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate; mso-highlight: yellow">&#8220;repatriated&#8221; such items for inclusion in our Lipper TER calculations</span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate">. </p>
<p></span></font></font><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">8) Short Accounting Periods </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Where companies have been launched part-way through an accounting period but the </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">resulting reporting period is more than ninety days old, we have included charging structure </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">data for reasons similar to those outlined in the first page of this section. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-MediumAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">9) Errors in Lipper TER Calculations </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">With any analysis such as this, questions regarding the accuracy of the underlying data are </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">inevitable. In general, notified “errors” have in fact been the result either of a different </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">method of calculating net assets (such as simply using closing assets, which is inferior), or </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">the result of a subjective judgment made by the questioner with which we do not ourselves </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">agree. </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The majority of the remaining “errors” have been the results of a cry of “foul” from certain </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">promoters, for example where it has been claimed that a high, all-encompassing figure </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">termed “Other Expenses” in the financial statements has in fact included non-operating costs </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">such as brokerage. While these cases are extremely infrequent, we are of the opinion that we </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">can only work with the information that is provided within the financial statements, and that </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">any investors conducting their own Lipper TER calculations on the basis of the companies </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">report and accounts would reasonably only come to the same conclusions as ourselves. This </p>
<p></font></font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: DIN-RegularAlternate"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">often leads to greater disclosure in the accounts in future periods. </p>
<p></font></font></span><em><span style="color: black"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">“Investment Company Charges” in association with the AIC </p>
<p></font></font></span></em>
</p>
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		<title>Starter SIPP from EPM</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/06/07/starter-sipp-from-epm/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/06/07/starter-sipp-from-epm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Jun 2008 20:33:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/06/07/starter-sipp-from-epm/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We recently had a chance to review the low cost SIPP options offered by one of our recommended SIPP platforms provided by European Pensions Management who are based in Salisbury, Wilts.  The starter SIPP has no set up cost and the annual fee is £75. This charge applies as long as the contributions per annum do not exceed [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'">We recently had a chance to review the low cost SIPP options offered by one of our recommended SIPP platforms provided by European Pensions Management who are based in Salisbury, Wilts.  </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'">The starter SIPP has no set up cost and the annual fee is £75. This charge applies as long as the contributions per annum do not exceed £3,600 gross (£2,880 net) and the overall value of the pension does not exceed £15,000.  </span></p>
<p></span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'">The Starter SIPP does not usually accept transfers-in but this can be done under special conditions. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'">Protected Rights cannot be held within the Starter SIPP. </span> <span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'" /><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'">Overall, an attractive entry-level product for a younger saver who wishes to start their SIPP early on. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'"></p>
<p /></span>
</p>
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		<title>Value re-appearing; caution still justified</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/04/29/29-april-value-re-appearing-caution-still-justified/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/04/29/29-april-value-re-appearing-caution-still-justified/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Apr 2008 11:38:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/04/29/29-april-value-re-appearing-caution-still-justified/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Global equities have rallied strongly since the middle of March on, some might say, a wing and a prayer, or at least on a mini boom of central bank largesse, after the nasty declines that had taken place in erratic, stair-step fashion, since the first signs last summer that something quite fundamental had changed in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Global equities have rallied strongly since the middle of March on, some might say, a wing and a prayer, or at least on a mini boom of central bank <em>largesse</em>, after the nasty declines that had taken place in erratic, stair-step fashion, since the first signs last summer that something quite fundamental had changed in the global economy and capital markets.<br />
<span />But a short sharp upward move is a short sharp move and not much else, and easily reversible when psychology is fragile as it still is now. Read full comment here: <a onmousedown="selectLink(264);" id="p264" href="http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/29-april-investment-comment.doc">29-april-investment-comment.doc</a>
</p>
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		<title>Follow the Sage</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/02/13/13-feb-08-follow-the-sage/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/02/13/13-feb-08-follow-the-sage/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Feb 2008 23:43:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2008/02/13/13-feb-08-follow-the-sage/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We live in challenging times, and at times such as these it pays the medium to long term investor to take a step back from the market melee, and try to discern where the next opportunities may lie.
History teaches us that there are invariably multiple new investment themes and trends which emerge from a fundamental [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We live in challenging times, and at times such as these it pays the medium to long term investor to take a step back from the market melee, and try to discern where the next opportunities may lie.</p>
<p>History teaches us that there are invariably multiple new investment themes and trends which emerge from a fundamental period of dislocation and doubt such as the one we are living through presently.</p>
<p>Analysis, <em>schmanalysis</em></p>
<p>Right now, negative news abounds from the banks, the housing market, the service sector, on the jobs front, on corporate earnings growth. Last week-end the IMF revised downwards its forecast for worldwide growth for 2008, but you got the distinct feeling that they are as much searching for straws as they are doing hard &#038; confident analysis of the current and future state of the world’s major economies. No one knows if the US will avoid recession, and least of all, I would suggest, the IMF. Equally, no one knows whether the much-discussed decoupling theory – that the world can grow even when the US is in recession – has much or any validity.</p>
<p>Pushing on a string?</p>
<p>Arguably the single biggest question currently is whether the very dramatic moves by the US to counter the mounting recessionary threats will have any effect. As the Fed funds rate has literally plunged through the floor, we have seen a dramatic reversal of the yield curve, the spread between the 2 year and 10 year US Treasury Bond. Observing the relationship over the last 15 years offers some clues as to where we might be in the evolution of the current recession / slowdown.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.investegate.co.uk/images/image.asmx/gen?fn=EditorialMedia/test/clip_image001.gif" /></p>
<p>In the 90-91 recession, the curve steepened well after the recession had technically ended, whilst in the 01-02 recession most of the steepening occurred prior to the end of the recession.</p>
<p>Of course, no two recessions are the same, although they do tend to share some similarities. Superficially, this one seems to echo the early 90’s experience, when one of the main catalysts was a major crisis in the US Savings &#038; Loans industry (basically building societies, US style).</p>
<p>The point is that, whatever the headlines, and whatever the well rehearsed &#038; serious systemic problems that are undoubtedly part of the cause of the current crisis, sharply steepening yield curves don’t persist forever, and neither do economic downturns.</p>
<p>Follow the sage…</p>
<p>For investors then, who don’t get paid for intricate macroeconomic analysis or sitting on their hands well beyond the point of maximum opportunity, this is a classic time to be seeking out solid investment opportunities. Witness Warren Buffett, who invariably only really gets busy in such times. If it’s time for him to go to work, surely it might pay us to turn away from the endless gloomwatch, and return to old-fashioned tyre-kicking.</p>
<p>It’s an irony that when the big picture noise is at its loudest and most pessimistic, it is usually the time to return to bottom-up analysis of company fundamentals. The companies that are thriving in this environment, and whose share prices are giving tell-tale signs that they are more than holding their own, despite the downturn, these are the names to be adding to your wish list. Then add patience and the passage of time, and you have the ingredients of a future investment strategy, looking beyond the current gloom and despair.</p>
<p>Comments on this article are now open (4th March 2008).
</p>
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		<title>US economic cross-winds &#038; the Fed</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/09/26/comment-us-economic-cross-winds-the-fed/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/09/26/comment-us-economic-cross-winds-the-fed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2007 12:33:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/09/26/comment-us-economic-cross-winds-the-fed/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[26-9-07 
We have long maintained that in order to analyse the investment and economic cycle, it’s vital to understand what is happening in the US as the largest economy in the world. This was common wisdom until recently, but with the emergence of the new Asian economies there is a tendency to look elsewhere. The fact [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>26-9-07 </p>
<p>We have long maintained that in order to analyse the investment and economic cycle, it’s vital to understand what is happening in the US as the largest economy in the world. This was common wisdom until recently, but with the emergence of the new Asian economies there is a tendency to look elsewhere. The fact remains the US economy is hugely influential, and has been a major source of growth for the export led economies around the world.<br />
The current  data coming out of the US is not very encouraging, to say the least. The housing recession is worsening with each month, with the supply of homes for sale at the end of September at a record 4.58 million. There is genuine concern that the great American consumer may finally have met his or her match.<br />
Yet US companies, like their counterparts across much of the globe, are in exceedingly good health, for the most part: balance sheets are awash with cash, and merger targets are likely to become more accessible, now that the private equity feeding frenzy has abated. Shares in the US are cheap on a relative basis, and unlike previous periods, the earnings are reliable and not subject to revisions. The lessons of the last decade seem to have been learned in that regard at least. It’s a pity the major lessons from the Savings &#038; Loans crisis of the early 1990’s were forgotten: the sub-prime crisis in one way is really the S&#038;L crisis under another guise.<br />
So all eyes are on the consumer, and equally on the Federal Reserve Bank. The latter is almost mandated to ease rates as they attempt to grasp the complexity and extent of the sub-prime contagion. This creates a push-pull situation, with worsening consumer fundamentals offset by an increasingly likely easing of monetary conditions. And the easing may accelerate if the Fed is unable to get a good handle on the systemic risks hidden in a thousand and one hiding places. What appears to have pushed the Fed to cut by ½ % recently – a rare event – was forward data on housing data which was nothing short of shocking.<br />
But despite the gloom on housing, it is extraordinarily hard to make a convincing bearish case if we are indeed at the start of an easing cycle. It requires an extreme bearish outlook over the next 2-3 years, which would require China and India to switch overnight from turbo-charged growth to low growth, and a whole host of other low-probability scenarios.<br />
If the market starts to project a genuine turn in the interest rate cycle, with a series of easings over the next 6-18 months, then we will enter a new phase in the investment and economic cycle. At the moment, we are caught between the devil of the housing crisis, forcing rates down – and the deep blue sea of incipient commodity driven inflation, pushing inflationary concerns and expectations up. One factor which may also have influenced the Fed&#8217;s decision is that the drop in inflation has made money tighter than it was heading into the credit crunch, as measured by the real target rate, which is the federal funds rate adjusted for inflation. This has risen from 2.8% in January to 3.4% in July because of falling inflation.</p>
<p>Overall, what is a globally orientated, conservative, UK-based investor to do in this fractious and volatile environment? More of the same is the rather unexciting answer, we think. Diversify sensibly, not slavishly. Buy top notch assets, be they funds, equities or other instruments. Stay the course as the market story unfolds, for as we said it rarely pays to get too far off the optimistic course when the Fed eases. And there is always the scenario where the market hurriedly discounts what it feels the worst case, takes notes that macro and micro fundamentals are in good shape, and with the tailwind of monetary easing in its back, takes off on of those upside adventures that can leave many a cautious investor behind. In other words, this remains a two way market, as is the case in most markets.<strong><br />
</strong>
</p>
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		<title>30-08-2007: Some perspective on the 2007 market crisis</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/30/some-perspective-on-the-2007-market-crisis/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/30/some-perspective-on-the-2007-market-crisis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Aug 2007 13:25:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/30/some-perspective-on-the-2007-market-crisis/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
There are 75 million homeowners in the United States, and about 65 million have seen 100% gains in their homes from 2001 to 2005, &#038; 40% of homeowners own their houses outright. Of the 60% of homeowners who have mortgages, 80% are prime mortgages, and 97% of those people are making their payments. Furthermore:


About 14% [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'" /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">There are <strong>75 million homeowners in the United States</strong>, and about 65 million have seen 100% gains in their homes from 2001 to 2005, &#038; </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">40% of homeowners own their houses outright. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">Of the 60% of homeowners who have mortgages, <strong>80%</strong> are <strong>prime </strong>mortgages, and 97% of those people are making their payments. Furthermore:</span></p>
<ol>
<li>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'" /><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">About <strong>14% of the 60% of mortgages in the United States are subprime or alt-A</strong>; one might assume that a lot of those will go bad. </span></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'" /><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">There are around $150 billion worth of mortgages at risk, so perhaps $50-75 billion of that gets foreclosed. </span></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">There is a $10 trillion mortgage market to absorb that $50-75 billion. Plus, there is </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">$<strong>18 trillion in stock market</strong> value, <strong>$30 trillion in bonds. </strong></span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">The Internet bubble bursting wiped out <strong>$7 trillion in 18 months</strong>. </span></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'" /><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">98.2% of people over 30 and college-educated are working. <strong>There has not been </strong></span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'"><strong>a reduction in consumer spending in any year since 1959</strong>. The same US consumer that continued to spend after the bursting tech bubble wiped out $7 trillion of net worth. </span></div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'">Finally, it&#8217;s surprising to note that in the US there have been </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><strong>14 months in total when the economy has been technically in recession in the past 30 years.</strong> Any one might think it&#8217;s been 14 years in total, rather than 14 months, listening to the current gloom and doom&#8230;</span></div>
</li>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> No firm conclusions yet, just some perspective on what has been the centre of the typhoon which has changed the nature of the post 9/11 world, during which time nearly all boatsd have risen with the incoming tide of liquidity and accompanying diminished risk-aversion.</span></p>
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		<title>28-08-2007: Patience</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/28/patience/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/28/patience/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Aug 2007 22:22:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/28/patience/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Patience
“The big money was made in the waiting”. Jesse Livermore
“You do better to make a few large bets and sit back and wait. There are huge mathematical advantages to doing nothing. ” Charles Munger
Man’s greatest invention? “Compound interest.” Albert Einstein

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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Patience</strong></p>
<p>“The big money was made in the waiting”. Jesse Livermore</p>
<p>“You do better to make a few large bets and sit back and wait. There are huge mathematical advantages to doing <em>nothing</em>. ” Charles Munger</p>
<p>Man’s greatest invention? “Compound interest.” Albert Einstein
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		<title>22-08-2007: Value &#038; timing</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/22/value-timing/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/22/value-timing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 15:04:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/22/value-timing/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Warren Buffett says he is getting more calls these days, albeit as he says, in classic Buffett-speak, &#8216;from a low base&#8217;&#8230;
Of course, he never shows his hand until it turns up at the next SEC filing on the SEC website. So no one knows whether he thinks Countrywide Credit, or the market in general, represent good value, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Warren Buffett says he is getting more calls these days, albeit as he says, in classic Buffett-speak, <em>&#8216;from a low base&#8217;</em>&#8230;</p>
<p>Of course, he never shows his hand until it turns up at the next SEC filing on the SEC website. So no one knows whether he thinks Countrywide Credit, or the market in general, represent good value, in his eyes.</p>
<p>What we know is that <em>when shares trade near to intrinsic value</em>, usually this is a good time to be thinking about buying. Recently, we have started to see a few of these, especially among the small cap sector.</p>
<p>Turning to the <a onmousedown="selectLink(252);" id="p252" title="FTSE 100" href="http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/isf_220807.pdf">FTSE 100</a>, we would say from a <strong>timing point of view</strong>&#8230;&#8217;tempting, but perhaps not quite yet&#8217; - If you look at the current price action relative to the major fall on and around July 26th, it&#8217;s fair to conclude, we think, that &#8216;<em>we&#8217;re not there yet&#8217;</em>. A decisive timing driven allocation move into the market here would have a major element of guesswork about it. On the other hand, for long term considerations, over a <em>3-5+ year horizon</em>, the <em>&#8216;Buffett camp&#8217;</em> view (very intrigued by the sudden value appearing here, there &#038; everywhere) probably makes a great deal of sense. To adapt one of our <em>Nebraskan sage&#8217;s</em> aphorisms<em>, </em>markets <strong>vote</strong> in the short term, then they <strong>weigh</strong> in the long term, having forgotten who they had voted for originally.</p>
<p>Are you a voter, or a weigher?
</p>
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		<title>08-08-2007: Global Leaders: Cisco Systems ($31.48)</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/08/global-leaders-cisco-systems-3148/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/08/global-leaders-cisco-systems-3148/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2007 14:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/08/global-leaders-cisco-systems-3148/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/07/07/global-leaders-cisco-systems/
This was our earlier note on Cisco who today reported stellar numbers, upgraded growth forecasts and crossed the threshold for the first time in their corporate history as non router sales surpassed router sales. It&#8217;s taken 5-7 years, but Cisco are genuinely back in the driver&#8217;s seat.

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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/07/07/global-leaders-cisco-systems/">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/07/07/global-leaders-cisco-systems/</a></p>
<p>This was our earlier note on Cisco who today reported stellar numbers, upgraded growth forecasts and crossed the threshold for the first time in their corporate history as non router sales surpassed router sales. It&#8217;s taken 5-7 years, but Cisco are genuinely back in the driver&#8217;s seat.
</p>
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		<title>The &#8216;three bears&#8217; test</title>
		<link>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/07/the-three-bears-test/</link>
		<comments>http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/07/the-three-bears-test/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Aug 2007 11:59:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dhalling</dc:creator>
		
		<category>Main</category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arcturus-investments.co.uk/2007/08/07/the-three-bears-test/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[David Roche writes in a compelling artcicle in today&#8217;s FT about the changing liquidity landscape that in his view, we are starting to see. Focus points of the article include: the stock of all global assets and related funding is estimated at 10 years of Global GDP; the &#8216;new monetarism&#8217; of today&#8217;s markets driven by securitised [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David Roche writes in a compelling artcicle in today&#8217;s FT about the changing liquidity landscape that in his view, we are starting to see. Focus points of the article include: the stock of all global assets and related funding is estimated at <em>10 years of Global GDP</em>; the <em>&#8216;new monetarism&#8217;</em> of today&#8217;s markets driven by securitised debt and derivatives, rather than central bank policy; the nature of risk has changed as derivatives have spawned more credit, loans have shifted off bank balance sheets and into a diversified pool of investors; more credit equals more liquidity; the insurance function <em>role of derivatives whereby risk is &#8217;sliced and diced&#8217;</em>, freeing up banks to make more loans; the growth in liquidity <em>mirrors closely the exponential rise in asset prices with lower volatility</em>; the drivers of credit are 1. risk appetite 2. long term cost of capital 3. low volatility.</p>
<p>David Roche sees all three of the above drivers as vulnerable to change. This is the <em>&#8216;three bears test&#8217;. </em>
</p>
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