Don Hays referred last week to the recent seminal bond market call from the guru du siecle (aka William Gross) last week, & how he had finally become, overnight, a bond bear.
He reminded us that if Bill Gross is as 1/10th as right as he was with his Dow 5000 forecast right at the 2002 low, then ‘we have it made‘…for the record, Hays’ view is that when the Fed gives up, this stock market is going to explode. Unfortunately, we are not at liberty to say in which direction! A clue lies in this: Hays is an equities man, Gross a bond man. Although this is the same Don Hays who called the equities big picture very much right, in 1999, and again in 2002/3. Crucially, he is not just writing about this stuff. His firm manages around $1bn in long term money, and his asset allocations are driven to a significant measure by these long term market calls.